Poll Shows Shoffner Slightly Ahead of Cotton in Arkansas Senate Race

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. — Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner holds a narrow lead over Republican U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton in a new statewide poll, although the difference falls within the survey’s margin of error.

The Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll found Shoffner with 47.4% support and Cotton with 44%. Libertarian candidate Jeff Wadlin received nearly 3%, while about 5.6% of respondents were undecided.

Shoffner’s 3.4-percentage-point advantage is smaller than the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points, meaning the survey does not establish a clear leader.

The poll surveyed 1,217 likely Arkansas voters Aug. 11-12.

Roby Brock, editor-in-chief of Talk Business & Politics, described the race as competitive but fluid, with months of campaigning and potentially substantial spending still ahead. The organization plans to continue polling the contest until early voting begins.

The results showed Shoffner drawing nearly universal support from Democrats, while Cotton received support from 82% of Republicans. Shoffner led among independent voters, 59% to 29%.

The candidates also divided voters along gender, age and education lines. Shoffner led among women, 51% to 41%, while Cotton led among men, 47% to 44%.

Shoffner held a 63%-29% advantage among voters with college degrees. Cotton led voters without college degrees, 51% to 40%.

Cotton received 57% support among voters 65 and older, leading Shoffner by 22 percentage points within that group. The candidates were tied among voters between 45 and 64, while Shoffner performed strongly among voters younger than 45, according to the poll’s accompanying analysis.

Robert Coon, managing partner of Impact Management Group, which works with Republican candidates, and Jay Barth, a Hendrix College emeritus professor who is active in Democratic politics, helped develop and analyze the poll.

Both linked Cotton’s showing to voters’ opinions of President Donald Trump. Forty-eight percent of respondents said they strongly disapproved of Trump’s job performance, and Shoffner received 94% support from that group.

Coon said Cotton remained strong in rural portions of Arkansas. He said county-level results did not indicate that Shoffner had yet gained a rural advantage from her campaign’s focus on farming and agricultural issues.

Barth said Shoffner’s support among Democrats and nearly two-to-one advantage among independents were driving her narrow statewide lead. Cotton retained advantages among older voters, men and voters without college degrees.

Responses were collected by text message, and the results were slightly weighted to account for ethnicity, education, gender and geography. The poll’s stated margin of error applies to the overall sample; results involving smaller demographic groups are less precise.